The following is my personal opinion. I am not a military officer, an intelligence expert, or a government insider. I am simply an old country preacher looking at what has happened, listening to what our leaders are saying, and trying to measure it by common sense and the Word of God.
After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Donald Trump, Netanyahu described it as “one of the best conversations” the two men had ever shared. We were told that the meeting was productive and that they discussed Iran, its nuclear program, and the possible military options available to the United States and Israel.
Before the meeting, the news made it appear that President Trump was upset with Netanyahu. We were told that Trump was irritated about reports concerning Israeli intelligence and Pickaxe Mountain, an underground Iranian facility.
Maybe the disagreement was genuine, but I have my doubts.
I cannot prove that it was political theater. I was not in the Oval Office, and I do not know what was said behind closed doors. However, whatever disagreement may have existed did not appear to create any lasting division between the two leaders. Netanyahu walked away praising the meeting and speaking of cooperation, mutual support, and shared goals.
That does not sound like two leaders who are seriously divided. It sounds more like two leaders who may disagree over how something is presented to the public while remaining in agreement about the general direction of the war.
The Bible warns us:
“The simple believeth every word: but the prudent man looketh well to his going.”
—Proverbs 14:15, KJV
We should not believe every public statement simply because it comes from a president, prime minister, general, intelligence agency, television commentator, or government spokesman. That does not mean we must accuse everyone of lying. It means we should listen carefully, examine the evidence, and remember that governments often tell the public only what they want the public to know.
We Must Be Cautious About Israeli Intelligence
I believe America must be extremely cautious about accepting Israeli intelligence without independent verification.
Israel has a capable intelligence service. I am not denying that. Israel may possess valuable information about Iran that the United States needs to consider. But Israeli intelligence exists to advance the interests of Israel—not necessarily the interests of the United States.
Sometimes those interests overlap. Sometimes they do not.
The Israeli government may decide that a particular Iranian facility poses an unacceptable danger to Israel. That does not automatically mean America should send its pilots, bombs, ships, money, and ground troops to eliminate it.
We must also remember that intelligence is not always as certain as political leaders make it sound. Intelligence reports contain facts, estimates, assumptions, probabilities, interpretations, and sometimes errors. Even accurate information can be presented in a way intended to lead policymakers toward a particular conclusion.
The Scripture says:
“He that is first in his own cause seemeth just; but his neighbour cometh and searcheth him.”
—Proverbs 18:17, KJV
The first person to tell his side of the story can sound convincing. But wisdom requires that the claims be searched, questioned, and independently examined.
Before the United States attacks Pickaxe Mountain—or sends one American soldier into those tunnels—the American intelligence community must independently verify Israel’s claims. Congress should be shown the evidence. The American people should be told why this facility presents a direct danger to the United States.
Suspicion is not proof. Possessing centrifuges is not necessarily proof that a nuclear weapon has been built. The possibility that Iran might do something in the future is not the same as evidence that an attack upon America is imminent.
Israel’s intelligence concerning the length and outcome of this war should also make us cautious. We were led to believe that the war would be short, that Iran would be quickly defeated, and that victory would come within days or weeks.
That has not happened.
The war has continued. Iran still possesses the ability to retaliate. American bases and personnel remain in danger. The United States continues to strike Iranian targets, while Iran continues threatening and attacking American interests. The promised quick victory has become another open-ended Middle Eastern conflict.
When an intelligence estimate proves wrong about how quickly a war will end, we should be very careful before trusting another estimate that says one more attack will finish the job.
How many times have Americans heard that one more bombing campaign, one more troop deployment, one more military operation, or one more change in strategy will finally bring victory?
There is always one more mountain to bomb.
There is always one more enemy commander to kill.
There is always one more military objective that must be completed before our troops can come home.
Pickaxe Mountain Could Become a Death Trap
Reports indicate that President Trump has been briefed on several options concerning Pickaxe Mountain, including bombing and the possible use of ground forces.
As far as we know, a ground operation has not been authorized. Nevertheless, the fact that it has reportedly been discussed should concern every American.
Pickaxe Mountain is not an empty barn sitting in an open field. It is reportedly a deeply buried underground complex beneath hundreds of feet of rock. Iran has known for years that Israel and the United States were watching the facility. It would be foolish to assume that Iran has not prepared to defend it.
If American ground troops are sent into those tunnels, they may face mines, traps, collapsed passages, hidden defensive positions, chemical hazards, ambushes, communications problems, and Iranian soldiers who know the layout of that mountain.
I fear it could become a bloodbath.
A military planner might call it a “limited operation.” A politician might call it a “surgical raid.” A government spokesman might say there will be no occupation and no attempt at nation-building.
But there is nothing limited about it to the mother whose son does not come home.
There is nothing surgical about it to the wife who receives a folded flag.
There is nothing small about it to the children who lose their father beneath a mountain in Iran.
The Bible asks:
“Or what king, going to make war against another king, sitteth not down first, and consulteth whether he be able with ten thousand to meet him that cometh against him with twenty thousand?”
—Luke 14:31, KJV
Jesus was teaching about counting the cost of discipleship, but the illustration remains plain enough for any president or general to understand: before entering a conflict, a wise leader sits down and counts the cost.
Have we counted the cost of sending American soldiers into Iran?
Have we considered how Iran would respond?
Have we considered attacks upon American bases throughout the Middle East?
Have we considered missiles, drones, proxy forces, attacks upon shipping, and the possibility of American prisoners being taken?
Have we considered what happens if the troops enter the mountain but cannot accomplish the mission?
Have we considered what happens if Iran retaliates and America answers with an even larger attack?
A ground raid can become a ground war. A ground war can become an occupation. An occupation can last for years.
That is how mission creep works. The mission begins with a narrow objective, but every failure creates another reason to expand it.
What Does “Victory” Mean?
Before another American life is placed in danger, President Trump needs to define victory.
Does victory mean destroying Pickaxe Mountain?
Does it mean permanently ending Iran’s ability to enrich uranium?
Does it mean removing the Iranian government?
Does it mean eliminating Iran’s missile forces?
Does it mean ending Iran’s support for its regional allies and proxies?
Does it mean forcing Iran to surrender?
Does it mean occupying part of Iran?
Or does it mean negotiating an enforceable agreement?
These are not the same objectives.
America has enough military power to destroy buildings, bridges, factories, ships, airfields, missile launchers, and perhaps the entrances to an underground facility. But bombs cannot destroy scientific knowledge. They cannot guarantee that Iran will never rebuild. They cannot force the Iranian people to accept a government chosen by Washington. They cannot create peace in the hearts of people who have lost their homes and families.
If victory has no clear definition, then the war has no clear ending.
The Bible says:
“For where envying and strife is, there is confusion and every evil work.”
—James 3:16, KJV
There is already confusion surrounding this war. We have heard different explanations for why it began and what must happen before it can end. When the purpose keeps changing, the public has every right to question whether our leaders have a workable plan.
America Must Make Its Own Decisions
I do not support the Iranian government. I do not support terrorism, attacks upon civilians, or threats against Israel. I do not want Iran to possess nuclear weapons.
But opposing the Iranian government does not require me to support an unlimited war.
Neither does criticizing the Israeli government make a person an enemy of Jewish people. Governments are not above examination. Political leaders are not beyond criticism. No nation should receive a blank check from the United States.
The Bible says:
“Put not your trust in princes, nor in the son of man, in whom there is no help.”
—Psalm 146:3, KJV
That Scripture applies to Iranian leaders, Israeli leaders, and American leaders. Our trust must not rest in Trump, Netanyahu, military power, intelligence agencies, or political promises. Our trust belongs in the LORD.
Israel has the right to consider what it believes necessary for its security. But Israel does not have the right to decide when American soldiers go to war. Netanyahu does not answer to American mothers and fathers. He does not answer to the American taxpayer. He is responsible for Israel, while the president of the United States is supposed to be responsible for America.
An ally may offer information. An ally may ask for assistance. But an ally should never be allowed to pull America into an open-ended war based upon intelligence that has not been independently verified.
It Is Time to Step Away From the Edge
I believe it is time for America to seek a negotiated ceasefire and begin stepping away from this conflict before the number of American dead begins to grow.
That does not mean abandoning our troops or withdrawing them carelessly. It means ending the expansion of the mission, refusing to send ground troops into Iran, protecting American personnel, and negotiating an orderly end to American involvement.
It means telling both Iran and Israel that America will defend its people, but it will not continue fighting an endless war.
It means requiring international inspections and independently verified evidence rather than beginning another invasion based upon fear, suspicion, or pressure from a foreign government.
It means choosing diplomacy while diplomacy remains possible.
Jesus said:
“Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God.”
—Matthew 5:9, KJV
Peacemaking is not weakness. It takes courage to stop a war after political leaders have promised victory. It takes humility to admit that the original plan did not work. It takes wisdom to recognize that continuing down the same road may cost more lives without producing a better outcome.
Some will say that walking away would make America look weak. I say there is nothing strong about continuing a war simply because our leaders are afraid to admit they cannot deliver the victory they promised.
Strength is protecting American lives.
Wisdom is knowing when military power has reached its limits.
Courage is refusing to send young men and women into a mountain merely to protect the pride and reputation of political leaders.
Count the Cost Before the Funerals Begin
I pray that I am wrong.
I pray there will be no ground invasion of Pickaxe Mountain. I pray that cooler heads will prevail. I pray our leaders will seek peace before more American families receive the terrible news that their loved one has been killed in a war that never had a clearly defined ending.
But we cannot wait until hundreds or thousands of Americans are dead before asking whether the mission was wise.
The time to count the cost is before the troops enter those tunnels.
The time to question intelligence is before the bombs fall.
The time to define victory is before the war expands.
The time to seek peace is before a few American graves become rows of American graves.
“Depart from evil, and do good; seek peace, and pursue it.”
—Psalm 34:14, KJV
I am not asking America to trust Iran. I am asking America to use wisdom.
I am not asking our leaders to ignore danger. I am asking them to prove the danger before sacrificing American lives.
I am not asking Israel to leave itself defenseless. I am asking the United States to make its own decisions based upon verified American intelligence and the interests of the American people.
The war is not over. The promised victory has not come. Another bombing campaign or a ground operation inside Pickaxe Mountain may not bring peace. It may only open another bloody chapter.
Mr. President, before you send our sons and daughters into that mountain, sit down and count the cost.
And please, count the crosses that may stand over their graves.
