The following is my personal opinion. I am not a military expert, an economist or a government insider. I do not claim to have any special revelation from God concerning the decisions being made in Washington. I am simply an old country preacher looking at what is happening, comparing the public explanations with the visible results, and asking questions that I believe every American has a right to ask.
Something about this war with Iran does not add up.
The administration tells us that the war concerns nuclear weapons, national security, freedom of navigation and the protection of American interests. Those may all be parts of the official explanation. However, as I watch the decisions being made, I have become convinced that oil is one of the major reasons this war is not being won—and may be one of the major reasons it cannot be won by military force.
The United States is fighting Iran with the right hand while helping Iran obtain money with the left hand.
As we used to say out in the country, we are robbing Peter to pay Paul. We are spending billions of American tax dollars bombing Iran while permitting Iranian oil to reach the market because the world cannot afford to lose that oil. We are trying to weaken Iran militarily while helping protect the stream of money Iran needs to continue fighting.
It reminds me of the Lord’s words:
“And if a kingdom be divided against itself, that kingdom cannot stand.”
—Mark 3:24, KJV
A nation cannot successfully carry out a war when one part of its policy works against another. Either the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing, or both hands know exactly what they are doing and the American people are not being told the whole truth.
Oil Has America Trapped
For many years, we were told that Iran could be isolated through sanctions. We were told that its oil exports could be restricted until its government was forced to accept American demands.
But when the Strait of Hormuz was severely restricted and millions of barrels of oil were removed from normal world commerce, oil prices began climbing. Gasoline, diesel fuel, transportation and production costs followed. The world suddenly discovered that it could not easily do without Persian Gulf oil.
Our government then began releasing oil from strategic reserves. Sanctions on Russian oil were relaxed. Iranian oil that had already been loaded aboard tankers was reportedly allowed back onto the market.
Think about that for a moment.
We were bombing Iran because its government was described as a grave threat, but at the same time we were allowing Iranian oil to be sold because the world economy needed it.
Iran received money from those sales. Money is interchangeable. The dollar Iran receives for oil does not come with a commandment saying, “Thou shalt not use this for military purposes.” Oil revenue can help support the Iranian government, replace damaged equipment, manufacture missiles, pay soldiers and continue the very war America claims it is trying to win.
That is robbing Peter to pay Paul.
We take oil from our emergency reserves to hold prices down. We allow the enemy’s oil to enter the market. Then we borrow more money to pay for the bombs being dropped upon the country receiving that oil money.
Who can call that a strategy for victory?
The Bible asks a very plain question:
“For if the trumpet give an uncertain sound, who shall prepare himself to the battle?”
—1 Corinthians 14:8, KJV
The trumpet coming out of Washington is giving a mighty uncertain sound.
Perhaps This War Is Not What We Have Been Told
I cannot look into the hearts of our leaders. I cannot prove hidden motives. Nevertheless, I can examine their actions.
Their actions suggest that this war is not merely about destroying military targets. It is also about controlling the flow of oil, keeping shipping lanes open, protecting the world economy and preventing American gasoline prices from becoming politically disastrous.
If oil were not a major concern, why would the government release enormous amounts from strategic reserves?
If weakening Iran were the only objective, why allow Iranian oil to be sold?
If national security were the highest priority, why drain part of the reserve that was created to protect this country during a serious emergency?
If the war is being won, why must we help keep the enemy’s principal source of income alive?
These are not unreasonable questions. They are questions that deserve honest answers.
The Lord said:
“For there is nothing covered, that shall not be revealed; neither hid, that shall not be known.”
—Luke 12:2, KJV
I do not believe the American people have been given a complete explanation of this war. We hear speeches about strength, victory and national security. We hear very little about the economic trap created by oil.
The truth may be that America cannot completely stop Iran’s oil without injuring its own economy and disrupting much of the world. Iran may understand that. If so, Iran possesses an economic weapon that American bombs cannot easily destroy.
A War Without a Clear Definition of Victory
Before sending young men and women into danger, a government ought to be able to explain what victory means.
Does victory mean destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities?
Does it mean overthrowing the Iranian government?
Does it mean eliminating Iran’s missiles?
Does it mean permanently reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
Does it mean forcing Iran to negotiate?
Does it mean protecting Israel?
Does it mean controlling the price and movement of oil?
Those are different goals. Some may even contradict one another.
Bombing Iran may destroy facilities, but it may also give Iran a greater reason to interfere with shipping. Preventing Iran from selling oil may weaken its government, but it may also cause worldwide prices to soar. Allowing Iran to sell oil may help lower gasoline prices, but it also provides Iran with revenue.
Every direction leads into another contradiction.
The Bible says:
“For which of you, intending to build a tower, sitteth not down first, and counteth the cost, whether he have sufficient to finish it?”
—Luke 14:28, KJV
Did anyone sit down and count the full cost of this war?
Did they calculate how long American missile inventories would last? Did they consider the cost of replacing every weapon? Did they consider the damage to our strategic oil reserves? Did they consider what would happen to farmers, truck drivers, small businesses, churches and working families if fuel prices continued rising?
Or did they assume the war would be short, Iran would surrender, the Strait would quickly reopen and the American people would never feel the full cost?
Gasoline Prices Are Political
I had believed that the oil disruption would push gasoline to $5 per gallon. That has happened temporarily in certain places, but the national price has not remained there.
Why not?
It was not because the oil shortage was imaginary. It was because governments took extraordinary steps to delay the consequences. Strategic reserves were opened. Sanctions were relaxed. Stored oil was released. Refineries ran near their practical limits. Traders repeatedly placed their hope in ceasefires and negotiations.
The consequences were postponed, but they were not necessarily prevented.
Oil taken from a strategic reserve today will not be available for the next emergency unless it is replaced. Replacing it will take time and money. Allowing sanctioned oil into the market may lower prices temporarily, but it also strengthens governments we claim to oppose.
Washington understands that $5 gasoline would change public opinion about the war. It would affect family budgets, food prices, transportation costs and the coming elections. Therefore, holding down gasoline prices is not simply an economic matter. It is also a political necessity.
That may help explain why the administration is willing to fight Iran while still allowing Iranian oil to be sold.
The war must continue, but gasoline must not become so expensive that Americans turn against it.
That is not honesty. That is managing public perception.
Tell the American People the Truth
I am not asking our government to reveal classified military information. I am asking it to answer some basic questions.
What is the true objective of this war?
What will constitute victory?
How long is it expected to last?
How much will it cost the American taxpayer?
Why are we allowing Iranian oil sales while trying to defeat Iran?
How much oil remains available for another national emergency?
What happens if the Strait remains restricted for several more months?
These questions do not make a person unpatriotic. A patriot is not someone who blindly accepts every decision made in Washington. A patriot is someone who loves his country enough to demand that its leaders tell the truth.
The prophet Isaiah warned:
“Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness.”
—Isaiah 5:20, KJV
We cannot call confusion a strategy. We cannot call endless bombing victory. We cannot call financing both sides sound policy. We cannot call the depletion of our reserves national strength.
It Is Time to Return to the Table
There comes a time when leaders must admit that military power cannot solve every problem.
Returning to honest negotiations would not necessarily be surrender. It may be the only realistic path out of a war that is draining American resources, endangering American service members and placing the world economy at risk.
Neither side appears able to obtain a complete victory without imposing unbearable costs upon everyone else. Iran cannot defeat the United States in a conventional military contest, but America cannot eliminate Iran’s ability to disrupt the region without risking a larger and more destructive war.
Meanwhile, oil continues to shape nearly every decision.
America bombs Iran but needs Iranian oil.
America sanctions Russia but needs Russian oil.
America maintains a strategic reserve but drains it to soften the political consequences of war.
America claims to be weakening its enemy while helping preserve the enemy’s income.
That is not victory. That is a circle of contradiction.
James wrote:
“A double minded man is unstable in all his ways.”
—James 1:8, KJV
Our war policy appears double-minded. We want to punish Iran, but we fear the economic consequences. We want to stop its oil, but we need its oil. We want to demonstrate strength, but we are becoming weaker in supplies, finances and public confidence.
It is time for our leaders to stop robbing Peter to pay Paul. It is time for the left hand to admit what the right hand is doing. Most importantly, it is time to tell the American people the truth.
I remain convinced that oil is a major reason this war is not being won. It may also be the clearest evidence that the war cannot be won through bombing alone.
“Wherefore putting away lying, speak every man truth with his neighbour: for we are members one of another.”
—Ephesians 4:25, KJV
America does not need another boastful press conference. America needs the truth, a clearly defined objective and leaders humble enough to return to the negotiating table before this war becomes another endless graveyard of lives, money and national strength.