Declaring Victory Does Not Mean the War Has Been Won

It is my opinion that as long as Donald Trump is president, there may be no lasting end to the war with Iran. I do not make that statement because I desire America to fail. I make it because I see little evidence that the present course is bringing the war to a successful conclusion.

President Trump repeatedly speaks as though the war has already been won. Yet Iran has not surrendered. Its government continues to function, its military continues to fight, and its missiles and drones remain capable of striking American forces and our allies. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, while Iranian-aligned forces continue threatening Saudi Arabia and Red Sea commerce.

If the war has been won, where is the peace?

If Iran has been defeated, why does it retain the ability to fight?

If American objectives have been accomplished, why are additional attacks and military operations still being discussed?

Declaring victory does not make it so.

Tactical Success Is Not Strategic Victory

The United States undoubtedly possesses tremendous military power. American aircraft and missiles can destroy bases, radar systems, weapons facilities and command centers. Our military can inflict terrible damage upon almost any country in the world.

However, destroying targets is not the same as winning a war.

A country can win individual battles while losing the larger struggle. We should have learned this from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. America won many battles in those countries, but military victories did not necessarily produce the political outcomes our leaders promised.

The same danger exists in Iran.

The United States may destroy an Iranian missile installation, but Iran can disperse its remaining weapons. We may kill military commanders, but others will replace them. We may damage an oil terminal, but that will not automatically compel more than ninety million Iranians to surrender.

Before declaring victory, the administration should answer several straightforward questions:

• Has Iran surrendered or accepted America’s principal demands?

• Has Iran lost its ability to conduct meaningful military operations?

• Has the Strait of Hormuz been reopened reliably?

• Are American forces and our allies safer than they were before the war?

• Has Iran’s nuclear program been permanently eliminated or placed under verifiable restrictions?

• Has the war ended under an enforceable agreement?

If the answer to most of these questions is no, then the word victory is political language rather than military reality.

Pride Can Become a National Danger

I cannot see into President Trump’s heart, and I cannot prove his private motives. I can only judge his public statements and decisions. Nevertheless, it appears to me that pride has become one of the greatest obstacles to ending this war.

The Bible warns:

“Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.”
—Proverbs 16:18, KJV

President Trump wants to be seen as a great military leader who forced Iran to submit. However, a great military commander is not measured by how loudly he announces victory. He is measured by whether he understands the enemy, establishes attainable objectives, protects his forces and knows when military power has reached its limits.

A wise leader also counts the cost before entering a conflict. Jesus used that principle when He said:

“Or what king, going to make war against another king, sitteth not down first, and consulteth whether he be able with ten thousand to meet him that cometh against him with twenty thousand?”
—Luke 14:31, KJV

That passage is not primarily a lesson about modern military policy, but its principle remains true: wise leadership considers the cost before beginning a struggle that may be impossible to finish.

Did our government honestly calculate the cost of confronting Iran? Did it consider Iran’s geography, population, missile forces and regional relationships? Did it consider the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz would be disrupted? Did it calculate how many expensive interceptors would be required to defend American bases and allied cities?

Most importantly, did it establish a realistic definition of victory?

America’s Allies Are Watching

The consequences extend beyond Iran. Saudi Arabia and other American partners are watching how the United States manages this war.

For decades, these governments depended upon the American security guarantee. They believed the United States could protect their territory, oil installations and shipping routes. Now they see American bases under threat, missiles penetrating regional defenses and Washington hesitating to intervene directly against the Houthis.

Saudi Arabia is consequently developing a stronger defense relationship with Turkey and Pakistan. This does not mean that the Saudi-American relationship has completely ended. It means that Saudi leaders no longer want to place their security entirely in American hands.

Turkey has offered military and technical assistance to Saudi Arabia under a trilateral defense agreement involving Pakistan. Turkey can provide drones, radar, electronic-warfare capabilities, military advisers and diplomatic access to several sides in the conflict.

If Turkey succeeds in helping negotiate a settlement while America remains trapped in an expanding war, Middle Eastern governments will increasingly look toward Ankara instead of Washington.

American influence depends upon credibility. Every threat that is not fulfilled weakens that credibility. Every declaration of victory followed by another round of fighting causes allies and adversaries to question America’s judgment.

A Dangerous Cycle

The present policy risks becoming an endless cycle:

America attacks Iran and announces major success. Iran survives and retaliates. The United States launches additional strikes. Iran responds again. President Trump then promises that the next attack will be decisive.

The cycle continues because neither side is willing to accept the other’s demands.

The great danger is that President Trump may escalate the war to defend his earlier declarations of victory. Once a leader personally connects his reputation with winning, negotiation can appear to him like humiliation. Instead of asking what is best for the nation, he may become concerned about how compromise will affect his image.

That is when pride becomes dangerous.

Additional bombing may destroy more property and take more lives, but it will not necessarily create peace. It may instead strengthen Iranian resistance, endanger American troops, exhaust our weapons stockpiles, increase fuel prices and weaken our ability to respond to crises elsewhere.

There Comes a Point of No Return

Every war reaches a point at which leaders must determine whether the original objectives remain attainable at an acceptable cost.

There is no wisdom in continuing a failed strategy simply because admitting failure would be embarrassing. Continuing to lose lives, money, weapons and international influence will not transform a strategic failure into victory.

The United States must decide whether to negotiate while it still has substantial leverage or continue fighting until circumstances force negotiations from a weaker position.

Cutting our losses would not require America to abandon its friends. It could mean changing from offensive warfare to defensive diplomacy. America could protect its people and bases, encourage a Saudi-Houthi settlement, negotiate commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz and support a broader regional security agreement.

Negotiation is not always surrender. Sometimes it is an acknowledgment that military power has accomplished all that it reasonably can.

The Truth Must Be Told

The evidence shows that America has inflicted substantial damage upon Iran. It does not show that Iran has been defeated.

Iran continues resisting. The fighting continues. American forces and regional allies remain under threat. Commercial shipping remains endangered, and the economic cost continues rising.

President Trump may continue declaring victory, but words cannot change battlefield reality. A war is not won because a president says it is won. Victory must be demonstrated through accomplished objectives, greater security and a lasting peace.

My concern is not protecting the reputation of one political leader. My concern is protecting the lives of American service members, innocent civilians and the long-term security of our country.

America needs leadership wise enough to recognize the limits of military force and humble enough to change direction when a strategy has failed.

Scripture warns that pride comes before destruction. That warning applies not only to individuals but also to nations and their leaders. If pride prevents our government from seeking peace, then pride may become the very thing that transforms a costly conflict into a historic defeat.