The following is my personal opinion based upon my observation of the war. I do not claim to know what government leaders know, nor can I predict exactly what will happen.
It is my opinion that President Trump’s decision to restart and intensify the war against Iran will not produce the victory he expects. The United States may possess overwhelming military power, but superior weapons do not guarantee political success. A nation can destroy ships, aircraft, missile launchers, bridges, and power plants without destroying a people’s determination to resist.
President Trump has repeatedly emphasized that Iran has little navy remaining, a weakened air force, and a limited supply of missiles. Yet Iran continues to resist, and the decisive victory we have repeatedly been told is near has not arrived.
Iran does not have to defeat the United States militarily. It only has to survive, continue resisting, and make the economic and political cost of this war greater than America and the rest of the world are willing to bear.
Destroying a Country Is Not the Same as Winning a War
The danger now is that military leaders may begin measuring victory by the amount of destruction they can inflict. If bombing military targets does not produce surrender, they may attack electrical plants, bridges, transportation systems, and other infrastructure upon which ordinary people depend.
When the electricity is destroyed, hospitals are affected. Water treatment may be disrupted. Food spoils because refrigeration is lost. Families lose their ability to cook, communicate, travel, and care for their children.
Government leaders may call these “strategic targets,” but the suffering eventually reaches people who had no part in beginning the war.
There is a point at which military pressure becomes collective punishment. Making civilians suffer in the hope that they will overthrow their government or force it to surrender is a dangerous and morally troubling strategy.
Bombing May Strengthen the Iranian Government
Many Iranian people may dislike their government. They may desire greater freedom, better leadership, and a different future for their children. But opposition to one’s government does not mean welcoming foreign bombs upon one’s country.
When homes are destroyed and innocent people are killed, anger that was once directed toward the Iranian government may be redirected toward the United States and Israel. People who previously opposed their leaders may rally around them because they believe the survival of their nation is at stake.
More bombing may strengthen the very government America claims it wants to weaken.
Every civilian casualty leaves grieving parents, children, brothers, and sisters. Every destroyed home creates bitterness. Every unnecessary death plants seeds of hatred that may continue growing for generations.
Violence may silence an enemy temporarily, but it cannot produce lasting peace in the human heart.
“For all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword.” — Matthew 26:52, KJV
The Danger of Pride and Arrogance
Pride and arrogance have been the downfall of many nations and leaders. History is filled with rulers who believed their power made them invincible. They underestimated their enemies, ignored warnings, and continued escalating until they carried their own people into destruction.
“Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.” — Proverbs 16:18, KJV
A nation’s military strength can become a source of pride. Leaders may begin believing that because they possess the power to destroy, they also possess the wisdom to control everything that follows.
But wars do not always follow the plans of those who begin them.
Bombs may miss their targets. Intelligence may be wrong. An enemy may retaliate in an unexpected place. An ally may take actions that widen the conflict. A foreign power may intervene. One mistake can turn a regional war into a worldwide catastrophe.
No leader should become so proud that he cannot admit a strategy has failed. Changing course is not always weakness. Sometimes it is the highest expression of wisdom and courage.
The Strait of Hormuz May Determine the Outcome
Iran may no longer possess the conventional military strength it once had, but it still has the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A significant portion of the world’s energy supply normally passes through those waters.
Iran does not have to defeat the American military if it can increase oil prices, disrupt shipping, raise insurance costs, and place pressure upon the world economy.
Eventually, nations dependent upon Middle Eastern energy will demand that the Strait be reopened and that oil and gas begin flowing again. China, India, Europe, Japan, and the Gulf nations cannot tolerate unlimited disruption.
But that international pressure may not fall upon Iran alone.
The world may demand that Iran stop attacking commercial vessels while also demanding that America end its blockade and bombing. Other nations may conclude that shipping cannot be restored while one side closes the Strait and the other closes Iranian ports.
The answer cannot be freedom of navigation for everyone except the nation we are fighting.
Address the Issues That Started the War
It is time to stop the violence and address the real issues that produced this war.
Those issues include Iran’s nuclear program, economic sanctions, maritime navigation, regional military activities, Israel’s security, Iranian security, and the influence of armed groups throughout the Middle East. None of these matters will be permanently settled by destroying more buildings or killing more people.
A lasting settlement will require difficult questions:
What verifiable limitations will Iran accept upon its nuclear program?
What inspections will be permitted?
What sanctions will be lifted in return?
How will freedom of navigation be guaranteed?
How will attacks upon Israel, Iran, Gulf nations, and American forces end?
What security guarantees can prevent another round of warfare?
Who will monitor and enforce the final agreement?
These are the real matters that must be negotiated. Bombing may change the bargaining position of each side, but it cannot replace the bargaining table.
The Time to Stop Is Now
It is time for President Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and the Iranian leadership to stop measuring strength by how much destruction they can inflict.
Iran must stop threatening ships, neighboring countries, American forces, and Israel. America and Israel must stop believing that unlimited bombing will force millions of people into submission. Every government involved must accept responsibility for its own decisions.
This is not about defending the Iranian government. I do not support its repression, threats, or violent actions. Neither do I support the present Israeli leadership or America’s continued expansion of this war. Condemning one government’s wrongdoing does not require us to excuse another government’s wrongdoing.
Wrong remains wrong regardless of who commits it.
“Depart from evil, and do good; seek peace, and pursue it.” — Psalm 34:14, KJV
Peace will require more courage than dropping another bomb. It will require leaders to restrain their pride, listen to their enemies, acknowledge legitimate grievances, and accept an agreement that may not give either side everything it desires.
President Trump may win many military battles and still lose the greater objective. True victory will not be measured by how thoroughly Iran has been destroyed. It will be measured by whether the killing stops, the Strait reopens, the nuclear danger is reduced, and families throughout the region can live without fearing the next missile or bomb.
Violence will not bring peace. Pride will not bring security. Arrogance will not produce wisdom.
It is time to stop the destruction, return to honest negotiations, and resolve the real issues that started this war before the leaders involved carry their nations beyond the point from which they can safely return.
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