I am not a military expert. I do not sit in the rooms where national-security decisions are made. I have no inside information, and I have received no special vision from God concerning this war. What I am sharing is simply my opinion after watching events unfold and trying to apply a little common sense.
The longer this war with Iran continues, the more convinced I become that Russia and China may be its real winners.
The United States may be destroying Iranian military installations, missile sites, command centers, and other strategic targets. Our leaders may point to those destroyed targets as evidence that the bombing campaign is succeeding.
However, destroying targets is not the same as winning a war.
A nation can win battles and still lose the greater struggle. America learned that painful lesson in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. We demonstrated overwhelming military power, spent enormous amounts of money, lost American lives, and eventually discovered that military superiority alone could not produce the political outcome we had been promised.
The Lord Jesus said:
“For which of you, intending to build a tower, sitteth not down first, and counteth the cost, whether he have sufficient to finish it?”
— Luke 14:28, KJV
I fear that our leaders counted the targets in Iran, but they failed to count the entire cost of attacking them.
Russia Is Selling the Oil
When war disrupts oil production and threatens the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil rises. Russia is one of the world’s largest oil-producing nations. Higher oil prices can mean more money flowing into Moscow.
That money can help Russia support its government, rebuild its military, and continue its war in Ukraine. While America is spending billions fighting Iran, Russia may be earning additional money because the war has placed the world’s oil supply in danger.
That is a strange kind of victory.
We say we want to weaken Russia, yet our actions in the Middle East may help increase the value of the very oil Russia sells. We sanction Russian oil with one hand while helping create higher oil prices with the other.
It reminds me of the old expression, “The left hand does not know what the right hand is doing.”
Our Lord used similar words when teaching about giving:
“But when thou doest alms, let not thy left hand know what thy right hand doeth.”
— Matthew 6:3, KJV
Jesus was speaking about humility in giving, but the expression describes the confusion we sometimes see in government. One part of our foreign policy is attempting to weaken Russia while another part may be creating conditions from which Russia profits.
China Is Still Getting Iranian Oil
China also has much to gain.
China continues to have access to Iranian oil and maintains an important economic relationship with Tehran. As Iran becomes more isolated from the West, it becomes increasingly dependent upon China for trade, technology, investment, and diplomatic protection.
The weaker and more isolated Iran becomes, the more it may be forced into China’s arms.
China does not have to bomb anyone. It does not have to put thousands of its soldiers in danger. It can stand back, purchase oil, expand its influence, and watch the United States consume its weapons and weaken its position.
China is playing the long game.
While Washington looks at tonight’s bombing targets, Beijing is looking ten, twenty, and thirty years down the road. China wants access to oil, markets, shipping routes, and political influence. Every time a Middle Eastern government begins to doubt the reliability or judgment of the United States, China is waiting with an offer of trade and cooperation.
The Bible says:
“The simple believeth every word: but the prudent man looketh well to his going.”
— Proverbs 14:15, KJV
A prudent nation must look beyond the next bombing run. It must ask where the road eventually leads.
Every Bombing Run Has a Cost
Some people appear to believe that because America has the world’s strongest military, our supply of weapons is unlimited. It is not.
Every bombing run consumes precision-guided weapons. Every Iranian missile or drone intercepted may require an expensive American defensive missile. Aircraft must be maintained. Spare parts must be replaced. Pilots and support crews become exhausted. Ships, radar systems, and air-defense units cannot be everywhere at the same time.
A missile fired tonight cannot be saved for tomorrow.
A missile used over Iran cannot simultaneously be held in reserve for the defense of Taiwan, South Korea, Europe, Israel, or the United States.
Recent military analyses have warned that some important American munitions inventories have been seriously strained. Certain sophisticated weapons and interceptors may require years to replace because American factories cannot manufacture them as quickly as the military can expend them.
This does not mean America is defenseless. It does mean our strength is not unlimited.
Russia understands that.
China understands it too.
Every week America remains tied down in Iran is another week Russia faces less American attention in Europe. Every American missile used in the Middle East is one less missile China may have to consider in a future conflict in the Pacific.
Neither Russia nor China must defeat the United States in a direct war if America will exhaust itself fighting a series of costly wars elsewhere.
The Bible warns:
“For by wise counsel thou shalt make thy war: and in multitude of counsellors there is safety.”
— Proverbs 24:6, KJV
Wisdom requires more than asking whether we can strike Iran. We must ask whether continuing to strike Iran is making America safer.
The Loss of American Influence
The greatest cost of this war may not be measured in bombs, dollars, oil prices, or even military equipment. It may be measured in lost American influence throughout the Middle East.
For many years, the Gulf nations have looked to the United States for military protection and economic stability. They may not always agree with Washington, but America has been their primary security partner.
That relationship could change.
If the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, and other regional countries conclude that America cannot control the conflict—or refuses to seek an honorable way out—they will begin looking elsewhere.
They may not completely abandon the United States. However, they can strengthen their relationships with China, Russia, Europe, and other powers. They can purchase military equipment from other countries. They can make trade agreements that exclude America. They can allow China a greater role in regional diplomacy.
Influence is much easier to lose than it is to regain.
America may weaken Iran’s military while also weakening its own standing throughout the region. If that happens, we will have destroyed many targets but lost the greater strategic battle.
Iran Can Lose While America Also Loses
We must stop thinking that every war has only one winner and one loser.
Iran can lose thousands of weapons, military installations, government buildings, and trained personnel while America also suffers a strategic loss.
Consider the possible outcome:
Iran’s military infrastructure is damaged.
Russia receives greater income from higher oil prices.
China receives Iranian oil and gains greater influence over Tehran.
America spends billions of dollars.
American weapons inventories are depleted.
American military personnel are killed or wounded.
Gulf nations begin questioning American leadership.
The American people face higher fuel prices and renewed inflation.
Russia and China face a weaker and more distracted United States.
If that is the final result, who truly won the war?
Russia and China may gain without firing a single shot at America. They can allow the United States to spend its strength, treasure, and influence fighting Iran.
The Scriptures declare:
“Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation; and every city or house divided against itself shall not stand.”
— Matthew 12:25, KJV
America cannot continue pursuing foreign policies that work against one another. We cannot complain when Russia and China help Iran while defending our right to help Ukraine. We cannot say that military assistance is righteous when we provide it but wicked when our adversaries provide it.
We cannot weaken Russia with one hand while creating higher oil profits for it with the other. We cannot say China is our greatest long-term competitor while exhausting weapons that might be needed to deter Chinese aggression.
Returning to the Table Is Not Surrender
There comes a time when wisdom requires leaders to stop, count the cost, and seek peace.
Returning to negotiations would not mean that America approves of the Iranian government. I do not approve of Iran’s leadership, its threats, its treatment of its own people, or its support for violence throughout the Middle East.
However, opposing the Iranian government does not require supporting an endless war.
Diplomacy is not cowardice. Restraint is not weakness. Sometimes the strongest leader is the one willing to say, “We have gone far enough. It is time to stop the killing and find another way.”
The Bible says:
“Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God.”
— Matthew 5:9, KJV
It does not say, “Blessed are the warmakers.” It does not say, “Blessed are those who can destroy the greatest number of targets.” Our Lord placed His blessing upon the peacemakers.
The Apostle Paul instructed:
“If it be possible, as much as lieth in you, live peaceably with all men.”
— Romans 12:18, KJV
Peace may not always be possible. There are times when evil must be resisted and innocent people defended. But war should never become our first answer, our only answer, or an answer without an ending.
America Must Count the Entire Cost
The question is no longer simply whether America can continue bombing Iran. Of course we can continue for some time.
The real question is what America will have left when the bombing finally stops.
Will our military be stronger or weaker?
Will our weapons stockpiles be prepared for another emergency?
Will our national debt be larger?
Will Russia be richer?
Will China possess greater influence?
Will Gulf nations trust Washington more—or less?
Will Iran’s nuclear ambitions truly be ended, or merely driven farther underground?
Most importantly, will America and the Middle East be any closer to lasting peace?
The prophet Isaiah wrote:
“And the work of righteousness shall be peace; and the effect of righteousness quietness and assurance for ever.”
— Isaiah 32:17, KJV
We should pray for our president, our military leaders, and all those making these terrible decisions. We should pray for American service members who have been placed in harm’s way. We should also pray for the innocent families suffering in Iran, Israel, and throughout the Middle East.
My concern is not that Iran should be permitted to threaten its neighbors. My concern is that America may destroy much of Iran while weakening itself in the process.
Russia is selling more oil. China is preserving its access to Iranian oil and expanding its influence. Meanwhile, America is spending money, consuming weapons, risking lives, and losing standing throughout the region.
Iran may be losing the bombing war, but Russia and China appear to be winning the larger strategic contest.
America’s leaders must count the entire cost before another bomb falls.
“To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven… A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.”
— Ecclesiastes 3:1, 8, KJV
We have had enough time for war.
It is time to seek peace.
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