A war may begin thousands of miles from an Indiana cornfield, but its consequences do not remain thousands of miles away. They travel through oil pipelines, shipping lanes, fertilizer plants, farm fuel tanks, grain elevators, trucking companies, food processors, and finally into the neighborhood grocery store.
The continuing war with Iran is no longer merely a foreign-policy issue. It is becoming an energy issue, an agricultural issue, and potentially a serious food-price issue.
The Bible says, “A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished” (Proverbs 22:3, KJV). Prudence does not mean panic. It means looking down the road far enough to recognize where present events may lead.
The Importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy passages in the world. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments normally pass through this narrow waterway.
When shipping through the strait is threatened, delayed, or blocked, the oil may still exist underground, but it cannot easily reach the refineries and nations that need it. Tanker insurance rises. Ships must wait, accept greater risks, or travel by longer routes. Those additional costs are eventually passed along to businesses and consumers.
The danger has become even greater because attacks have not been limited to shipping. During this conflict, refineries and other energy installations in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar have reportedly been struck or disrupted.
Some attacks were conducted directly by Iran. Others were carried out by Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen. That distinction matters when assigning responsibility, but it does not make much difference to the energy market. A damaged refinery produces less fuel regardless of whose drone or missile struck it.
The recent attack upon Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery was especially troubling. Jazan can process approximately 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day. It is located near the Red Sea, along the alternative route Saudi Arabia uses to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
If the Persian Gulf route is restricted and the Red Sea alternative is also threatened, the world begins losing both its main route and its detour.
Why the American Farmer Should Be Concerned
Modern farming depends upon energy from the time the ground is prepared until food reaches the consumer.
Diesel powers tractors, combines, grain carts, irrigation equipment, and trucks. Propane and natural gas dry corn and manufacture fertilizer. Petroleum is used in producing and transporting chemicals, machinery parts, seed, and packaging.
Indiana diesel has already been selling for more than $5 per gallon. If the war pushes diesel to $7, harvesting will not suddenly stop, but the cost of nearly every part of agriculture will rise.
Combines must run when the crop is ready. Farmers cannot leave mature corn and soybeans in the field while they wait for diesel prices to decline. Delaying harvest can bring lodging, grain loss, excessive moisture, snow, and storm damage.
Depending upon equipment, hauling distance, field conditions, and tillage practices, $7 diesel could add approximately $5 to $12 per acre to fall operating expenses compared with recent fuel prices.
That could mean an additional:
$2,500 to $6,000 for a 500-acre farm;
$5,000 to $12,000 for a 1,000-acre farm;
$12,500 to $30,000 for a 2,500-acre farm;
$25,000 to $60,000 for a 5,000-acre operation.
Those are only planning estimates. They do not include every indirect increase in custom-harvesting charges, grain hauling, machinery service, replacement parts, fertilizer transportation, or interest expense.
Farmers Are Already Facing Poor Profit Prospects
According to Purdue University’s 2026 Crop Cost and Return Guide, the projected full-cost break-even price on average-productivity Indiana soil is approximately $5.34 per bushel for rotation corn and $12.47 per bushel for soybeans.
Purdue’s assumed harvest prices were only $4.35 for corn and $10.20 for soybeans.
Under those assumptions, Purdue projected average losses of approximately $147 per acre for rotation corn and $86 per acre for rotation soybeans after accounting for land, labor, machinery ownership, and other overhead expenses.
In other words, many farmers were already looking at losses before diesel reached $7 and before the full consequences of this energy crisis were known.
Diesel alone will not bankrupt every farm. Farmers who own their land, carry little debt, have modern equipment, and produce high yields may withstand considerably higher fuel prices. But farms paying high cash rent, carrying large operating loans, hiring custom harvesters, or hauling grain long distances are much more vulnerable.
For an operation expecting only $10 or $20 per acre of true profit, $7 to $9 diesel could consume what little margin remains.
Fertilizer May Become an Even Greater Problem
Diesel is not the only concern. Fertilizer production depends heavily upon energy, especially natural gas. Fertilizer must also be transported by ship, rail, barge, and truck.
If the war continues to disrupt Gulf energy production and international shipping, farmers could face higher fertilizer prices or difficulty obtaining the amounts they need for the 2027 crop.
Corn requires substantial nitrogen. When fertilizer becomes too expensive or unavailable, farmers may plant fewer acres of corn and more soybeans. They may reduce application rates, postpone phosphorus and potassium replacement, or leave marginal acreage unplanted.
A farmer can occasionally postpone some fertilizer applications when the soil already contains adequate nutrients. However, nutrients cannot continually be removed without being replaced. Cutting nitrogen too severely can reduce corn yield during that very season.
Poor farm profits also affect fertilizer use. A farmer who loses money in 2026 may enter 2027 with less operating capital and greater dependence upon bank financing. If lenders become cautious, some farmers may be forced to reduce inputs even if fertilizer is technically available.
The 2027 Crop May Be the One Most at Risk
The 2026 crop was largely planned and planted before the complete economic effects of this war were known. The 2027 crop will be financed, fertilized, planted, cultivated, harvested, dried, and transported under whatever conditions this war leaves behind.
The critical period will begin during the fall and winter of 2026.
Farmers will be arranging operating loans, ordering seed, buying fertilizer, contracting fuel, and deciding how many acres of corn or soybeans to plant. If diesel remains extremely expensive, fertilizer is scarce, interest rates stay high, and crop prices remain below production costs, the yield potential of the 2027 harvest could be reduced before the first seed enters the ground.
Weather will then become the great multiplier.
Good rainfall and favorable temperatures might partially compensate for reduced acreage or inputs. Drought, flooding, excessive heat during pollination, or an early frost could turn a difficult agricultural year into a genuine production crisis.
A 5 percent reduction in a 16-billion-bushel corn crop would remove approximately 800 million bushels. A 10 percent reduction would remove about 1.6 billion bushels.
The nation may have carryover stocks to absorb part of such a loss, but eventually somebody must reduce consumption or pay more.
How the Cost Reaches the Marketplace
Higher farm expenses do not appear at the grocery store immediately. The increase moves through the system in stages.
The farmer pays more for diesel, fertilizer, seed, drying fuel, repairs, and interest. The elevator pays more to handle, dry, and store the grain. The trucking company pays more to haul it. The processor pays more for energy, labor, packaging, and transportation. The grocery store then pays more to place the finished product upon its shelves.
Corn is used for livestock feed, ethanol, starch, sweeteners, and numerous processed foods. Soybeans supply cooking oil and soybean meal for poultry and livestock. Wheat becomes flour, bread, cereal, pasta, and bakery products.
Higher grain prices would eventually increase the cost of meat, milk, and eggs. Those increases can take longer because livestock producers may initially sell animals to reduce their feed expenses. That temporary increase in meat supplies can briefly hold prices down. Later, when herds and flocks are smaller, prices may rise sharply.
The likely timeline would be:
Fall 2026: Higher fuel and fertilizer costs affect planning.
Winter 2026–27: Farmers arrange financing and make planting decisions.
Spring 2027: Crops are planted, possibly with reduced acreage or fertilizer.
Summer 2027: Weather determines the final severity of the problem.
Fall 2027: A smaller or more expensive crop reaches the market.
Late 2027 and early 2028: Higher costs appear more noticeably in meat, dairy products, eggs, cooking oil, bread, and processed foods.
Preparation Without Panic
This warning is not a prediction that America will run out of food. The United States remains one of the world’s greatest agricultural producers. Farmers are resourceful, hardworking people who have endured droughts, floods, wars, inflation, and depressions.
However, strength should not become an excuse for complacency.
Families should control unnecessary debt, maintain a reasonable supply of regularly used food, reduce waste, conserve fuel, and prepare household budgets for higher costs. Churches should consider how they will assist elderly people, struggling families, and farmers under financial pressure.
There is no wisdom in panic buying or hoarding. Such behavior creates the very shortages people fear. Christian preparation should always include generosity.
Farmers are not merely businesses on a balance sheet. They are the people who feed us. When farm families struggle, rural churches, schools, equipment dealers, local stores, and entire communities feel the consequences.
The Bible says, “Behold, the husbandman waiteth for the precious fruit of the earth, and hath long patience for it” (James 5:7, KJV). The husbandman can plant and cultivate, but he cannot command the rain, lower the price of diesel, reopen a shipping lane, or end a war.
The Cost of War Eventually Comes Home
The explosions may be occurring in the Persian Gulf, but their economic shock waves can reach a cornfield in Boone County, Indiana.
War consumes fuel, destroys infrastructure, interrupts trade, increases debt, and raises the price of necessities. The poor, the elderly, the farmer, and the working family usually carry burdens they had no part in creating.
If the war with Iran is not resolved soon, its greatest agricultural consequences may not be felt during the 2026 harvest. They may emerge during the 2027 planting season, when farmers must purchase diesel, fertilizer, and seed while securing operating credit.
Reduced acreage, lower fertilizer application, financial pressure, and unfavorable weather could substantially reduce the 2027 harvest. Those losses would then pass through feed mills, livestock operations, food processors, trucking companies, and grocery stores, resulting in higher food prices during late 2027 and early 2028.
National Security Must Begin With the American People
This is my opinion, and I understand that others may disagree. However, it will not matter whether a family is Republican, Democrat, independent, conservative, or liberal when they can no longer afford the diesel required to harvest their food, the gasoline needed to travel to work, or the groceries required to feed their children.
The price at the pump does not ask how we voted. The grocery-store cashier does not lower the bill according to our political party. Economic hardship crosses every political boundary.
If Americans continue supporting an expanding war with Iran, we should not be surprised when the financial cost comes home. We should not expect Israel—or any other foreign nation—to rescue American farmers, truckers, elderly citizens, or working families when fuel and food become unaffordable. Foreign governments naturally pursue what they believe to be their own national interests. The responsibility of the United States government is to pursue the security and welfare of the American people.
Israel is responsible for the security of Israel. The American government is responsible for the security of America.
That does not mean we should hate Israel, Iran, or any other nation. It does not mean we should ignore human suffering or refuse legitimate diplomacy. It means American soldiers and American taxpayers should not be committed to a war merely to secure the political or military objectives of a foreign government.
I do not believe this is a war America has any business fighting.
Getting the United States out of this war should be treated as a national-security issue. National security is not limited to aircraft carriers, missiles, military bases, and foreign alliances. It also includes affordable energy, dependable agriculture, functioning transportation, secure food supplies, and the ability of ordinary families to purchase the necessities of life.
What kind of national security have we achieved if our farmers cannot afford fertilizer, our truckers cannot afford diesel, our elderly people cannot afford groceries, and working parents must choose between filling the fuel tank and feeding their children?
Protecting the American people must include protecting them from the unnecessary economic consequences of prolonged foreign wars. Our leaders should seek an immediate ceasefire, reopen international shipping, reduce the danger to American service members, and bring this involvement to an end.
That is not isolationism. It is prudence. It is recognizing that a government which neglects the welfare of its own people while financing destruction abroad has misunderstood its first responsibility.
We should pray for peace—not only because war is expensive, but because human lives are sacred. We should pray for American soldiers, Iranian families, Israelis, Arabs, farmers, laborers, and innocent children throughout the region.
“Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God” (Matthew 5:9, KJV).
May God give our leaders wisdom, bring this war to an end, and teach us again that the way of peace is always less costly than the road of destruction.
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