There are times when a nation must look beyond tomorrow’s military objective and consider what its actions will cost the generations that follow. The continued war with Iran is one of those times.
This is not merely a conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Its consequences are already reaching farmers, truck drivers, factory workers, small businesses, and struggling families around the world. The longer this war continues, the greater the suffering will become.
Jesus said:
“For which of you, intending to build a tower, sitteth not down first, and counteth the cost?”
—Luke 14:28, KJV
Before another bomb is dropped, another missile is launched, or another American servicemember is placed in danger, we had better sit down and count the cost.
The Strait of Hormuz Is the World’s Economic Lifeline
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important shipping passages in the world. Before this conflict, approximately 20 million barrels of oil moved through it every day. That represented roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum consumption.
According to the International Energy Agency, shipments through the Strait fell from around 20 million barrels per day before the conflict to an average of approximately 2.7 million barrels per day during March, April, and May. The agency has described this as the largest oil-supply disruption in the history of the global petroleum market.
That is not political speculation. Those are measurable losses in the amount of oil reaching the world economy.
The Strait cannot be kept open merely by having American warships stationed nearby. A government may announce that a shipping lane is open, but tanker owners, insurance companies, captains, and crews must believe that it is safe enough to use.
A sailor cannot be ordered by a politician to ignore sea mines, missiles, drones, explosions, and burning ships. If insurance companies will not cover the voyage and tanker companies will not risk their crews and vessels, the oil will remain at the loading terminal.
We must understand something very important: military control is not the same as commercial confidence.
The Diesel Warning Must Be Taken Seriously
Shell CEO Wael Sawan recently acknowledged:
“The price signals are that we are short on diesel and gasoline.”
That statement does not prove that diesel rationing will begin tomorrow. It does prove that the global fuel market is already tight.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, American distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—are approximately 10 percent below their five-year average for this time of year.
Diesel is not simply another fuel. It is the fuel that keeps much of the economy moving.
Diesel powers:
Farm tractors and harvesting equipment
Long-haul trucks delivering food and merchandise
Construction machinery
Trains and locomotives
Emergency generators
Mining and logging equipment
Ships and industrial machinery
Much of our military equipment
When diesel prices rise, the cost is not confined to the fuel pump. It is added to the price of nearly everything transported, planted, harvested, manufactured, or constructed.
The farmer pays more to plant and harvest the crop. The trucking company pays more to deliver it. The grocery store pays more to receive it. In the end, the struggling mother and father pay more to feed their children.
That is how a distant war enters the kitchen of an Indiana family.
The Danger Goes Far Beyond Fuel
The nations surrounding the Persian Gulf supply more than crude oil. The region is also important to the production and transportation of natural gas, fertilizer, plastics, chemicals, and industrial feedstocks.
A prolonged interruption can affect:
Fertilizer needed by farmers
Petrochemicals used to manufacture plastics
Sulfur and other industrial chemicals
Medical and manufacturing supplies
Heating and electrical generation
Food production and refrigeration
Transportation and international shipping
When fertilizer becomes scarce or expensive, farmers may use less of it. When farmers use less fertilizer, crop yields may fall. When crop yields fall, food prices rise.
Wealthy countries may complain about inflation. Poor countries may face hunger.
That is what troubles me. America may survive higher fuel and grocery prices, although many American families will suffer greatly. But poorer nations do not have the same reserves, purchasing power, transportation systems, or government assistance.
For them, a prolonged energy crisis could mean empty shelves, unemployment, political unrest, migration, and starvation.
The Bible asks:
“Whoso stoppeth his ears at the cry of the poor, he also shall cry himself, but shall not be heard.”
—Proverbs 21:13, KJV
We cannot claim to value human life while refusing to consider the innocent people suffering because of decisions made in Washington, Tehran, and Jerusalem.
War Has Consequences Politicians Cannot Control
Government leaders often speak as though war can be carefully managed. They tell us the operation will be limited, the enemy will surrender, shipping will resume, and victory is just around the corner.
But war has a way of refusing to follow the plans of politicians.
The Bible says:
“For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind.”
—Hosea 8:7, KJV
Once a war begins, no leader can guarantee where it will end. One attack produces retaliation. Retaliation produces escalation. Escalation strikes infrastructure, closes shipping lanes, kills civilians, and draws additional nations into the conflict.
Bombing may destroy a target, but it cannot rebuild trust. Missiles may destroy a refinery, but they cannot harvest wheat. Warships may patrol a sea lane, but they cannot force commercial vessels to sail through dangerous waters.
Most importantly, military power cannot bring back the dead.
Every American casualty represents a family that will never be the same. Every Iranian child killed is also somebody’s son or daughter. God did not create American children in His image and forget the children born in Iran.
“Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God.”
—Matthew 5:9, KJV
Jesus did not say, “Blessed are the warmakers.” He said, “Blessed are the peacemakers.”
We Must Not Confuse Restraint With Weakness
There will be those who say that seeking a negotiated settlement makes America look weak. I believe it takes more courage to stop a destructive war than it does to order another bombing mission.
Pride keeps wars going long after wisdom says they should end. Leaders become afraid that negotiation will make them appear defeated. As a result, thousands of ordinary people may be sacrificed to protect the pride and reputation of a handful of powerful men.
The Word of God warns us:
“Only by pride cometh contention: but with the well advised is wisdom.”
—Proverbs 13:10, KJV
A wise leader does not ask only, “How can we hurt the enemy?” A wise leader also asks:
How can we stop the killing?
How can we protect our servicemembers?
How can we restore commercial shipping?
How can we prevent worldwide hunger?
How can we keep this conflict from becoming an even greater war?
That is not surrender. That is statesmanship.
My Appeal to President Trump
In my opinion, President Trump should be searching for every reasonable way to resolve this war instead of sending messages centered upon how Iran can be hurt.
Hurting Iran will not be confined to Iranian government officials. Continued attacks will hurt ordinary Iranians, American servicemembers, Gulf nations, farmers, truck drivers, manufacturers, and families who have no voice in these decisions.
It is easy to send an email. It is easy to make a threat. It is easy to speak boldly when someone else must do the fighting, someone else’s child must die, and someone else’s family must pay the grocery bill.
The responsibility of the president is not merely to demonstrate American firepower. It is to protect the American people, exercise sound judgment, and pursue peace whenever peace remains possible.
President Trump should appoint credible negotiators, work through neutral nations, seek enforceable protection for commercial shipping, and establish a path toward de-escalation. Every available diplomatic door should be tried before this war takes more lives and inflicts greater damage upon the world.
The Bible declares:
“When a man’s ways please the LORD, he maketh even his enemies to be at peace with him.”
—Proverbs 16:7, KJV
Count the Cost Before It Is Too Late
I am not saying that worldwide collapse is certain. I am saying the danger is real enough that no responsible leader should dismiss it.
The verified facts already show:
A historic disruption in Gulf oil shipments
Tight supplies of diesel and gasoline
Below-average American distillate inventories
Increased danger to commercial tankers
Pressure upon fuel, fertilizer, transportation, and food costs
A growing risk of inflation and recession if the conflict continues
No one can honestly predict every consequence of a prolonged war. That uncertainty is itself a reason for caution.
America does not need more boasting. We need wisdom.
We do not need leaders trying to prove how much pain they can inflict. We need leaders asking how much suffering they can prevent.
We do not need another generation of young men and women returning home in flag-draped coffins from a war that politicians promised would be short and victorious.
The Apostle Paul wrote:
“If it be possible, as much as lieth in you, live peaceably with all men.”
—Romans 12:18, KJV
Notice that Paul did not say peace would always be easy. He said that, as much as lies within us, we must pursue it.
The time has come to count the cost. The time has come to put pride aside. The time has come to search seriously for a way out of this war.
There is still an opportunity to choose negotiation over escalation, commerce over destruction, and life over death. But that opportunity will not remain open forever.
“Depart from evil, and do good; seek peace, and pursue it.”
—Psalm 34:14, KJV
May God give our leaders enough humility to seek peace, enough courage to pursue it, and enough wisdom to recognize it before the whole world pays a price that never needed to be paid.
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