Again, I am not a prophet nor am I making a prophecy. I am only asking the question considering
proposed policies of the United States government.
Syria has never been a threat to the United States. It has been a means of getting back at
Iran. The whole Syrian conflict has been
a cover to destroy Iran’s political power in the region.
For over thirty years the Islamic Republic of Iran has been
an enemy of the US government. Iran has
been the thorn in the side of US policies in the Middle East. Americans have been led to believe that Iran
is the greatest threat to American security.
The facts are Iran has never been an actual threat to the United
States. It has no desire to make the US
territory, has never conducted a terrorist operation aimed at the American
homeland, and if they were to gain nuclear weapons, they have no delivery
system to threaten the US. The economy
of Iran is weak, and they will never become a challenger to the US.
So, why is the US government so involved in the Middle
East? The danger from Syria and Iran has
never been towards the US but towards Israel.
For years there has been a consensus in Israel that Iran cannot be
allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. From left to right across the political
spectrum, a great many Israelis see a threat to their very survival from a
nuclear Iran. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said, “Israel will not tolerate
a nuclear weapon in the hands of people who say openly, explicitly and publicly
that they want to wipe Israel off the map.” In his first speech to the Knesset
after being sworn in as prime minister, Binyamin (“Bibi”) Netanyahu said, “We
cannot afford to take lightly megalomaniac tyrants who threaten to annihilate
us.” Other Israeli leaders fear that Israel’s strategic room for maneuver in
the region would be constrained by an Iranian nuclear deterrent. The success of
Iranian-backed terrorist groups, Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza and the
West Bank, in the last few years has only added to Israel’s concern.
The Israeli leadership is concerned that if Iran gains
nuclear weapons, they will attack Israel and the international community will
do nothing. Israel, however, is not
sitting back waiting for the first strike from Iran. They have been planning for a military
operation to prevent Iran from ever gaining nuclear weapons. It should be noted that Israel has the
nuclear weapons needed to stop Iran in its tracks and will no doubt use that
option if they feel it is required. So, there is a considerable reason to
believe that under the right (or wrong) set of circumstances, Israel would launch
an attack—principally airstrikes, but possibly backed by special forces
operations—to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
This could create either an opportunity for or a threat to American
interests about Iran and the broader Middle East. It could constitute a chance,
and thus a possible policy option if the United States would like to see Iran’s
nuclear program destroyed but prefers not to do it. It could be a threat if the
United States believes that an Israeli attack would destabilize the region and
would not advance (or would harm) American interests concerning Iran.
For years I have heard Zionist Christians who have expressed
the hope that Israel would strike Iran— that Jerusalem would have the “guts” to
do what Washington does not. Other Americans regard the prospect with horror,
believing that an Israeli attack would bring about Armageddon.
Since the US government would like to appear to have clean
hands encouraging or even assisting Israel in conducting the strike would
deflect away from the US international criticism and place it on Israel. With the increase in anti-Semitism around the
world, Israel would be blamed and condemned by the world.
By pulling out of Syria and bringing our troops home from the
Middle-East the US government is opening the door for both Israel and Turkey to
get involved in Syria and Iran. Turkey
is ready to move on Syria, along with Israel.
Syria is the first step to an air strike on Iran. Israel would not need to secure regional
support for such an operation. They
could move very fast to implement an attack.
There are, however, some problems if this happens.
Israel cannot avoid flying through someone’s airspace. The most direct route from Israel to Iran’s
Natanz facility is roughly 1,750 kilometers across Jordan and Iraq. As the
occupying power in Iraq, the United States is responsible for defending Iraqi
airspace. The alternatives via Turkish airspace (over 2,200 kilometers) or
Saudi airspace (over 2,400 kilometers) would also put the attack force into the
skies of US. Allies equipped with American-supplied air defenses and fighter
aircraft. In the case of turkey, an Israeli overflight would be further
complicated by the fact that Turkey is a NATO ally that the United States has a
commitment to defend, and it hosts a large, joint Turkish-American airbase
along the most likely route of attack.
For political and
military reasons, Israel’s need to overfly Turkish, Iraqi-Jordanian, or Saudi
airspace creates two problems. First, an Israeli strike must achieve surprise
so that Israeli planes are not intercepted by the air defenses and fighters of
those countries. Second, in part based on reason number one, the Israelis would
get basically one shot at Iran. On the first pass, they likely would surprise
any of those countries and be able to reach Iran and return before the Turks,
Saudis, or Jordanians could activate their air defenses; but a second wave
would meet alerted air defenses, creating military and political problems that
Israel would likely find insurmountable. An initial Israeli attack across Iraqi
territory would severely complicate the US military presence there; a repeat
performance would likely compromise it all together. So, after the first round
of strikes, Israel would have nothing but its small fleet of ballistic missiles
and submarine-launched cruise missiles for follow-on attacks, and because the
ballistic missiles are such valuable assets, Jerusalem would not likely
squander them on anything but the highest value Iranian targets.
If for whatever reason
Israel carries out missions against Syria and Iran will they then face Turkey
who will no doubt have gained control over a large portion of Syria? Turkey is no friend of Israel and with Syria
and Iran weakened will Turkey become the uniting force to bring about the
desired Islamic Caliphate that will unite the Muslim countries against Israel?
These are just a few thoughts that should be considered about
what is taking place in the Middle-East today.
I do support President Trump in getting out of the Middle-East. Regardless of what Turkey and Israel do or
the outcome of their actions, we are moving closer to the final judgment God
will bring on the wicked. It is
important that as Christians we warn others to be prepared for the coming of the
LORD as we see the day approaching.
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